U.S. Real GDP Growth Accelerated to 3.4% in Third Quarter 2026

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2026, according to the advance estimate released on October 29, 2026, by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The estimate covers July, August, and September and follows a 2.2 percent increase in the second quarter. The release, numbered BEA 26-45, was embargoed until 8:30 a.m. EDT that morning.

Current-dollar GDP increased 5.6 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 4.9 percent after a 4.6 percent increase in the second quarter. The 3.4 percent annual rate is equal to 0.8 percent at a quarterly rate, according to the release’s technical notes, which state that the bureau displays percent changes in quarterly seasonally adjusted series at annual rates unless otherwise specified.

The bureau attributed the third-quarter increase in real GDP to increases in investment, consumer spending, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Contributions to Third-Quarter Growth

In percentage-point contributions at seasonally adjusted annual rates, consumer spending contributed 2.6 points to the change in real GDP, investment contributed 3.3 points, and government spending contributed 0.9 points, according to the full release document. Exports subtracted 0.6 points and imports subtracted 2.6 points. The bureau notes that because imports enter the GDP calculation as a subtraction, an increase in imports produces a negative contribution to GDP and a decrease in imports produces a positive contribution.

Compared with the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP primarily reflected an acceleration in investment and an upturn in government spending that were partly offset by a downturn in exports, the bureau stated. Imports increased more in the third quarter than in the second.

The increase in investment primarily reflected increases in private inventory investment and in equipment. The largest contributors to the rise in private inventory investment were wholesale trade and manufacturing, both led by nondurable goods industries, based primarily on Census Bureau inventory book value data. Within equipment, the increase was led by information processing equipment, mainly computers and peripheral equipment, based primarily on import data from the Census Bureau-BEA U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report and the Census Bureau’s Advance Economic Indicators Report for September.

The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the increase was led by health care, mainly hospitals and outpatient services, based primarily on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics, and by food services and accommodations, mainly purchased meals and beverages, based on the Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Within goods, the increase was led by other nondurable goods, mainly prescription drugs, based on the retail survey data.

The increase in government spending was more than accounted for by federal government spending, led by nondefense consumption expenditures. The bureau stated that the pattern of nondefense spending primarily reflected sales of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, based on U.S. Department of Energy data. Within the National Economic Accounts, those sales are deducted from government consumption expenditures, and third-quarter sales were smaller than second-quarter sales, producing an increase in consumption expenditures. Because the oil sold by the government is reflected as an increase in other components of GDP, the reserve sales had no direct effect on GDP, according to the release.

The decrease in exports primarily reflected a decrease in goods, led by petroleum and related products. The largest contributor to imports was capital goods, except automotive. The export and import estimates primarily reflected Census Bureau-BEA trade data together with the advance indicators report for September.

Price Measures and Recent Quarters

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter after a 5.6 percent increase in the second. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.1 percent after a 5.0 percent increase, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 2.5 percent after a 3.3 percent increase.

A historical table published with the release shows real GDP increased 4.0 percent in the second quarter of 2025, 3.9 percent in the third quarter of 2025, 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, and 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2026, before the 2.2 percent increase in the second quarter of 2026 and the 3.4 percent advance estimate for the third quarter.

The bureau stated that the advance estimate rests on source data and assumptions detailed in its key source data and assumptions table. BEA will publish the second estimate of third-quarter GDP, together with an estimate of corporate profits, on November 25, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EST.